Why trading models stumble when crypto volatility regimes shift
Models trained in calm markets often misread sudden turbulence. How regime-detection layers help an engine recognise when the rules of the market have changed.
Research
Clear thinking on AI and crypto markets
Analysis from the Croftvex research team on machine learning in trading, UK cryptoasset rules, tax and the infrastructure behind digital assets.
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From the research desk
The UK's cryptoasset regime: what the new rules mean for retail investors
Legislation to bring cryptoasset trading platforms under FCA supervision is progressing. What the proposed regime covers and how it could affect you.
Reading sentiment: how language models separate news from noise
Not every headline moves a market. How language models weigh source quality, novelty and context before a story is allowed to influence a signal.
Crypto and Capital Gains Tax: record-keeping before Self Assessment
HMRC treats most cryptoasset disposals as taxable events. Practical steps for keeping the records you need to complete your tax return with confidence.
Overfitting: the quiet risk inside every back-tested strategy
A strategy that looks perfect on historical data can fail in live markets. The warning signs of overfitting, and the tests we use to guard against it.
Stablecoins explained: how pegs hold, and how they break
Fiat-backed, crypto-collateralised and algorithmic stablecoins work in very different ways. What keeps each one stable, and what has made some fail.
Explainable AI: why you should be able to see a signal's reasoning
Black-box predictions are hard to trust and harder to manage. How feature attribution shows investors what is actually driving an AI-generated signal.
Hot wallets, cold storage and custody: a plain-English guide
Where your cryptoassets are actually held matters. The trade-offs between hot wallets, cold storage and third-party custody, explained without jargon.
Reinforcement learning for order execution: promise and limits
Reinforcement learning can split large orders into smaller ones that move the market less. Where the approach works well, and where it still falls short.
Spotting crypto scams: warning signs every UK investor should know
Fake celebrity endorsements, guaranteed returns and pressure to act fast are classic red flags. How to recognise them and check a firm on the FCA Register.
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